AFC Championship Game Pick Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Predictions

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Pick

Line: Patriots -3, Total: 44.5
TV: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver

Patriots vs Broncos Lines * Prop Odds

Patriots vs Broncos Preview

Denver’s home-field advantage makes this a scary pick for New England. Neither Tom Brady nor Peyton Manning has defeated the other quarterback on the road since 2007, but New England’s offense finally appears to have all of its horses. If Broncos cornerback Chris Harris, who’s been dealing with a bum shoulder, remains nicked up, Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman could be in for a big game.

Denver also will have its hands full with Rob Gronkowski, seeing as how a healthy Edelman and Danny Amendola will prevent the Broncos from doubling the big tight end all day. Those three players – Edelman, Amendola and Gronkowski – presumably will all be on the field for the entire game, which wasn’t the case the last time these teams met on Nov. 29 when Denver beat New England at home in overtime.

Brady is 5-1 straight up (SU) but is 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) when favored by at least three vs. Manning. Brady holds the overall lead in the series 11-5, but they have split the last 10 meetings. Sunday’s game will also mark the fourth time Manning and Brady have battled with the Hunt Trophy and a Super Bowl trip on the line.

Brady is more of a big-game performer and you have to figure he is confident with practically a full arsenal of receivers, something he did not have before and the Patriots still forced overtime.

Brady and the New England offense against Denver’s vaunted defense is a fascinating matchup. The Patriots were among the league leaders in yards after catch, whereas the Broncos were among the best when it came to limiting yards after catch. That could be where the game swings, and if that’s the case, you have to figure the Patriots’ playmakers can make a big play.

Denver also allowed almost 400 yards last week to a Pittsburgh Steelers team that was without both its top wide receiver and starting tailback.

Patriots vs Broncos Betting Trends

NEW ENGLAND
New England is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games
New England is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
New England is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England’s last 7 games when playing Denver
New England is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England’s last 11 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
DENVER
Denver is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games
Denver is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games when playing New England
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver’s last 11 games when playing at home against New England

NFL Lines From SportsBetting.ag
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New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Pick

The Patriots looked like they were back last week as they beat the Chiefs. The Offense has most of its’ weapons back and of course they have Brady. The Broncos were on the verge of losing as the Steelers had the lead, the ball, and were driving in Bronco territory before a fumble changed the game. The Bronco offense wasn’t much but it was enough. I don’t see five field goals carrying the day against the Patriots. The history of these two teams says to expect some points. I do. I just don’t see Denver being able to keep up with the Patriots. Manning just isn’t the quarterback he used to be.

Betting Picks: Patriots -3 & over.
Patriots vs Broncos Lines & Prop Odds
Score Prediction: New England 30 – Denver 20